Holding the fort

UPDATE: 092205 2200 CST: It appears now that the hurricane is taking a more easterly track than forecast. If this track holds, the eye will pass to the east of the Galveston/Houston area, sparing them most of the projected damage. If it continues to vary from the models to the east, it could pass close enough west of New Orleans to un-do the progress that's been made there. One thing's for sure, the petroleum industry will take another hit on the Gulf Coast, as there are several refineries in the Beaumont to Port Arthur stretch where the landfall is now forecast, not to mention dozens of offshore oil rigs in the path of Rita.

Looks like maybe "Ranger" decided that the Madam was too much for him, but figured he could use the old "draw off the enemy" trick that we used to see on the black and white Saturday horse operas. It may have worked...

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UPDATE: 092205 1140 CST: Lots of folks commenting, so let's use the comments as a sort of live-blog for a while. Also, AccuWeather has now called for the eye-hit to be on Galveston Island, with whatever winds the eyewall brings, and a 20-foot PLUS storm surge. Hard to say whether their seawall could take that. The fate of the New Dawn is not looking good.

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Rivrdog here, posting for the Cap'n, my blogfather, who is conning his lead sled due North out of Galveston as best he can. As of 2200 CDT when he called me, his position was 20 miles from the Bay. He was stopped on the road, was barely making progress, and didn't expect to make his destination some 80 miles North until dawn. His cats, not used to car travel, were unhappy and letting me know over the miles of air and wires.

Madam Rita isn't getting any weaker, but she may be losing her opportunity to bring Texas to her knees as her sister, Katrina, did to Louisiana and Mississippi. Texas is protected by a strong anticyclone, a high-pressure dome that is keeping Rita from making her turn onto the Gulf Coast. Now, there is hope that the storm will not come ashore near the heavily populated Houston area, but far enough West that her energy will be expended on lesser destruction. She's going to hit somewhere, and that somewhere will cease to exist as a coast town, but with luck it won't be the vital Houston/Galveston area.

I want to name the high pressure dome. NOAA won't, but I want to call it Ranger, after the legendary, but small group of lawmen that has protected Texas and Texans over the years. Ranger, meet Rita. Rita, this is Ranger. Y'all see that rifle Rita? See that Walker Colt? See that blacksnake bullwhip? Maybe y'all better stay out of Texas, ma'am.

Jim expressed hope to me that maybe, just maybe, the storm surge will be expended farther down the coast and the New Dawn will ride it out in her marina.

Let's all hope and pray with Cap'n Jim. Pray for his wheezy old Crown Vic. Pray for his frightened animals. Pray that he continues his cool, calm assessment of his risks and his rewards, and makes all the right decisions.

Finally, pray for "Ranger". His resolve, his firm placement protecting Texas is all the state has left to hope for.

Rivrdog, out.

Comments

[Tammy]

Thankyou Riverdog for the update : )

[Moriarty]

Thanks 'dog!

Our hopes continue to ride with you, Jim!

On the trip back, have a vet Rx you some acepromazine for the furfaces. It's God's Own Medicine at times like this.

Also, Doc Russia's on the bugout trail (against his wishes) while Domestic-6 is staying behind to help fill the developing physician manpower crunch. If anyone has a couple of prayers left over, it can't hurt.

[karen]

Have you seen the latest GFS AND GFDL MODELS? That storm is coming right for Galveston. I am sorry that Ranger is not going to hold up, he is moving east and Rita will follow him right into that void in an easterly turn. I don't know where you are but you need to look at some maps and just drive away as far as you can get. Go NW and go past a hundred miles from the coast. Rita is a beast at 897 mb.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/220311.shtml?

[Cybrludite]

I'm in agreement. Get the hell outta dodge & head for high ground.

[Da Goddess]

Wishing Jim and all the others in the area a safe evacuation.

[Joseph Berry]

I think Rita's projections are politically motivated in part. There was a media driven interest to belittle Mayor Ray Nagin's attempt to repopulate New Orleans since Bush was in disagreement. Ray Nagin's motives related to trying to position victims for contracts and jobs. So, like everything else, money is at the root of Rita's evil.

[Val Prieto]

Make no mistake my friends, as of this morning, Thursday Sep. 22, Rita is a monster. There is no weathering a cat five hurricane.

My thoughts and prayers are with Jim and all those up in the monsters path. I truly hope Jim is gettin' the hell outta dodge.

[Tennessee_Budd]

Rivrdog, thanks for the update, but a favor--please don't try faking a Southern accent. "Y'all" is plural, not singular.

[Tammy]

As of 8:30 am this morning Jim is only 50 miles out of Galvaston, Traffic moving at a crawl and getting no where fast , I do hope he reaches his destination before the end of the day , Still keeping him and his Cats in my prayers

[MK]

As of 9 am this morning, I-45 out of Galveston is one way North. I know Jim bailed off of this main exit route last night, but perhaps this will ease up all the traffic in his path. Reports of other routes turned to one way are also on the horizon. Continued safe travel, Cap'n, hope your fuzzy ones settled down a little. You and all the evacuees are in my prayers.

[Marcus]

Thanks Rivrdog...talked to Jim this AM. He is doing fine.

[robert]

Anyone know where Jim is headed? He's welcome here in Tyler, 250 miles north of where the New Dawn floats.

[Rivrdog]

TN_Budd: Fakin' it, yes sir. I haven't lived in TX since 1979, but I was born in VA, south of Mason's and Dixon's Line.

Thanx, Marcus, for the update: you're in the prayers also. Stay off that patio, it's roof might become a killer as it departs the premises.

Tks, Karen, yes I've seen the models. To my regret, I've just been updated by AccuWeather.com, and they now say Galveston will take a major strike from both the eyewall and the storm surge. That will put a wall of water up the Houston Ship Channel. I hope their levees are in better shape than the Big Easy's were.

Thanx, Val, I know you're having as hard a time as I feeling Jim's dread.

No info on Jim's actual destination, but originally, it was supposed to be only 80 miles North or Northwest.

[robert]

I'm a landlubber but wondering why Jim didn't fire up the New Dawn and head south to Mexico. Looks like plenty of time...and choosing between loosing the boat or the car, I THINK I would have chosen the boat.
I'm probably missing something obvious. Sure would like to be straightened out.
Lots of boat insurance? Fond memories of blow jobs in the back of the Crown Vic?

[Lornkanaga]

robert--I'm a landlubber too, but I know enough about hurricanes to know that the one place you don't want to be is on the water when one is anywhere nearby. They are also incredibly unpredictable.

Jim's doing the only thing he can to remove himself and his cats from harm, and that's fleeing as far inland as he can--no storm gains momentum on land, it only loses it.

[Tennessee_Budd]

Apologies, Rivrdog, but it sounds like you've been away too long. You've forgotten part of your native language.

[KCSteve]

My brother lives in Angleton (SSW of Houston). He flew their plane out and up to Dallas this morning, his wife drove the car. I set the computer to hate interstates and found her a route out NNW through Waco. Only a couple of jam ups so she should be there only in only about 2 hours more than the computer thought. In other words, now that Jim's bailed off the main roads, he's probably making fairly normal time.

Hopefully Rita will continue her sharp turn to the East and spare Galveston (and the New Dawn) the brunt of her wrath. Right now it looks like she's going in to scour off of the parts of Louisiana Katrina missed.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3%2Bshtml/144728.shtml?5day?large

[MoK]

I dunno, Tennessee_Budd. Maybe it depends "where" in the south you're from. Didn't one of the "Blue Collar Comedy" guys (Jeff Foxworthy, I think) say that plural was "All y'all"? ;o)

Prayers go out to you and the kitties, Jim.
Thanks, Rivrdog, for the updates.

Incidentally, on another thread, "some chick" informed us as to his destination. He will be in the best of care.

[74]

Actually, getting underway and avoiding the storm is the preferred method, but.... For something as small as the Dawn, you need lots of lead time. This time of year, you could spend 6 months being chased from one area to another by hurricanes. If you don't have a full-time crew, visas, and a ton of money, its more practical to just hope she doesn't end up sunk or in pieces.

[Marcusq]

From what I have been told, the Hou. ship channel can take a 20 foot surge. Trouble is, if that happens, there may not be any place for drainage.
Coastal hit appears to now be just south of Beaumont to Sabine.
Jim's reasoning is sound. As he was given a opp to escape the rage of Rita, he now has a passenger and is providing cartage for them to even norther areas.

[Rivrdog]

All good news, but the best seems to be on the track of Rita, which is even more easterly than forecast. In the left-front quadrant now, both Galveston and Houston may be spared most of the damage, in fact, in these circumstances, Jim's boat and dock may take some damage from an ULTRA-LOW tide, which could cause the New Dawn to go aground at her mooring. Worst damage there would be to deck fittings, etc and maybe to the dock, possibly some superficial glass damage to the hull.

He could handle that.

If the storm turns any farther east, New Orleans is in for Round Two. The hurricane is progged now to stall over N. Louisiana, and dump buckets of rain, much of which will go into the Atchafalaya Project. We'll get to see how good the feds built THAT one.

If it holds, and doesn't dump all it's water down on New Orleans, I'm sure the MSM will tell us that it was built by a (D)onk administration...if it fails, we'll be told that it was built during a GOP administration.

[Justthisguy]

Hmm. Old River Control. Atchafalaya. The River has expressed a desire to go that way, long since. Morgan City would make a perfectly good port, without the nastiness of NOLA.

[Tammy]

Has anyone heard from Jim?? I have not talked to him since 8:30 Thursday Morning, and I am worried , I thought he was headed up to the ranch of the late Steve Herod area.45

But to read moK post ,

(Quote) "Incidentally, on another thread, "some chick" informed us as to his destination. He will be in the best of care." ( Unquote)

do tell what thread u read that on by the way ...Thanks

[MoK]

Hi Tammy. I read it on a different website altogether.
http://www.thenationofriflemen.com

He has a clear destination, it's the matter of getting there. As others have indicated, he's making his way. What a monstrosity of a traffic jam on I45. Hopefully Jim will be in a position to update us or to phone a friend who can. At least he's out of immediate harm's way. Last I heard, 90% of Galveston residents had evacuated.

[Tennessee_Budd]

Sure hope Jim took back roads & not I-45. It looks to be a parking lot.
At least it looks like the storm is turning North. God bless everybody.

[SomeChick]

Just spoke to him. Alive and kicking. Update to follow.

[Tammy]

Thankyou MoK for the reply : )

Look forward to the update Somechick , Hope everything is well