Rita No.6

04:31 CST, Galveston, Texas

A three-hour snooze.

And I awake to Rita having blossomed to a Category Three storm.  Such a precocious girl.

I had to take a break from the preparations.  Stress and fatigue aren't conducive to clear thinking, and my gut tells me that clear thinking is going to be an essential value in the next few days.

Coffee a'brewing, I've just made the rounds of the council of weather gurus for my first morning update.  Hoping to learn of some odd favorable quirk or wobble in the storm's path, I'm not surprised to find that Rita remains steadfast and relentless in her two-step towards Texas.

That girl just plain bothers me!

It seems certain that Rita will summon forth her inner Category Four, with the threat and not-so-veiled-threat to ascend to the throne of the Queen of All Storms.  To be crowned a Category Five hurricane would be for her, an honor, and for her subjects; tyranny.

Is this when I'm supposed to start blaming FEMA for not being here soon enough?  Or to fault the President for a supposed late response, to something yet even to occur? 

Governor Perry has already recalled the Texas National Guard from Loisiana, putting them on standby and in pre-deployment preparedness in Texas for the aftermath of Rita.  Today is Wednesday.... he did that on Monday.

Note that I said aftermath.  On this side of the Texas-Loisiana border, it is well understood that the local civil servants, municpal, county and state law-enforcement, serve as the first responders.  The same applies to services provided by fire, EMS and all other divisions of our local governments.

The fault that my boat has nowhere to go to safety, is not George Bush's fault.  The fault that her refit founders far from completion is not FEMA's fault.

Damn my luck being a Constitutionalist.  Elsewise, I could blame this whole damn mess on the present eeeeeevvvill administration.  [tinfoil hat, on] Actually, I blame Rita on New Orleans Mayor Nagin and Louisiana Governor Blanco.  Damn permissive liberals, showing these storms they could misbehave with no limits or discipline! [/ tinfoil hat, off ].   Hey, if the screaming moonbats of the left can postulate all maner of insanity in their knowledgeless accusations of  failiure of President Bush and his administration, I can go just as far off to assign blame to the liberal, permissive left, can't I?   (eeeevil Vast Right Wing Consipiracy chortle n' grin)

Guess it's no wild shopping sprees with a FEMA Visa card for me, eh?   Damn.

I might humbly mention that the Pay-Pal tip-jar over on the right column may just have significant merit in the days to come.  Hey, what a thought!  A charitable contribution with no middleman!  I promise to spend generously on ammunition, modestly on cigars, and only to the minimum required rations of Maker's Mark.  I can't abuse the generousity of my readers by sqandering their largesse on stuff like food and clothing and shelter now, can I?

Damn straight I can, and unlike the wait-to-be-told-what-to-do-next crowd who yet linger in civic centers and churches in, I suppose, every state of the Union, I'm already working out plans for how to hit the ground running after the storm. 

I'll take some help from FEMA and their ilk, if need be.  But my days won't be spent standing in lines, waiting as Oliver Twist, bowl in hand and begging for "more, please?".  I know where  the "on" switch is on a shovel.  I'll do what I need to do, and I'll get things done.

But that's for later.  Right now, I've got lots of things to get done, right here and right now.

One question for y'all who have the luxury of time to do some research while I'm back at my toils.  Can anyone dig up what the tidal state will be for Galveston Texas, and the Houston Ship Channel, concurrent with the projected time of Rita's landfall?

I'd appreciate the information, as it will be of utmost importance in how I rig the boat's docklines, just prior to departure.  Please leave a description and link in your comments.  Thank you in advance!

Okay then.  The coffee's done brewing, the storm brews stronger still.  I've got a ton left to do here.

More, later.

Comments

[MorningGlory]

Jim, I hope this will help. It came from http://www.saltwatertides.com/dynamic.dir/texassites.html; there are other locations available besides Manchester, but I wasn't sure which you needed. Will keep looking for something that predicts timing for Rita's surge(s).

MorningGlory

Tides for Manchester, Houston Ship Channel starting with September 20, 2005.

Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible

Tu 20 Low 5:19 AM 0.8 7:09 AM Set 9:49 AM 95
20 High 10:32 AM 2.2 7:20 PM Rise 9:04 PM
20 Low 5:23 PM 0.2

W 21 High 12:43 AM 2.5 7:09 AM Set 10:55 AM 89
21 Low 6:07 AM 1.1 7:19 PM Rise 9:41 PM
21 High 10:35 AM 2.2
21 Low 6:11 PM 0.1

Th 22 High 2:13 AM 2.5 7:10 AM Set 12:00 PM 81
22 Low 7:03 AM 1.2 7:17 PM Rise 10:22 PM
22 High 10:14 AM 2.4
22 Low 7:03 PM 0.1

F 23 High 4:04 AM 2.5 7:10 AM Set 1:02 PM 72
23 Low 8:02 PM 0.1 7:16 PM Rise 11:08 PM

Sa 24 High 6:52 AM 2.7 7:11 AM Set 2:01 PM 63
24 Low 9:12 PM 0.2 7:15 PM Rise 11:59 PM

Su 25 High 8:01 AM 2.7 7:11 AM Set 2:54 PM 53
25 Low 10:30 PM 0.2 7:14 PM

M 26 High 8:38 AM 2.7 7:12 AM Rise 12:54 AM 43
26 Low 11:43 PM 0.2 7:12 PM Set 3:41 PM

Tu 27 High 9:01 AM 2.7 7:12 AM Rise 1:51 AM 34
27 7:11 PM Set 4:22 PM

W 28 Low 12:42 AM 0.2 7:13 AM Rise 2:48 AM 25
28 High 9:08 AM 2.5 7:10 PM Set 4:57 PM

Th 29 Low 1:28 AM 0.3 7:13 AM Rise 3:44 AM 17
29 High 9:09 AM 2.5 7:09 PM Set 5:29 PM
29 Low 2:53 PM 1.2
29 High 6:23 PM 2.2

F 30 Low 2:04 AM 0.4 7:14 AM Rise 4:40 AM 11
30 High 9:11 AM 2.4 7:08 PM Set 5:57 PM
30 Low 2:47 PM 1.1
30 High 7:28 PM 2.4

Sa 1 Low 2:35 AM 0.5 7:15 AM Rise 5:34 AM 5
1 High 9:17 AM 2.4 7:06 PM Set 6:24 PM
1 Low 2:56 PM 0.9
1 High 8:26 PM 2.4

Su 2 Low 3:03 AM 0.6 7:15 AM Rise 6:29 AM 2
2 High 9:24 AM 2.4 7:05 PM Set 6:50 PM
2 Low 3:15 PM 0.7
2 High 9:22 PM 2.4

M 3 Low 3:32 AM 0.7 7:16 AM Rise 7:24 AM 0
3 High 9:31 AM 2.4 7:04 PM Set 7:17 PM
3 Low 3:40 PM 0.7
3 High 10:18 PM 2.5

For this Galveston Bay site only use the highest high and lowest low as tides in one lunar day.

[Gary C Newlin]

Jim,
NHC is hedging on the arrival time; Around 0600H Saturday is what they are saying now.
--------------------------------------------
FROM; http://www.saltwatertides.com/dynamic.dir/texassites.html
For both locations from Thursday thru Sunday, all of the low tides are near zero, and all of the highs are steady at +2.5 / +2.7ft. You'll have a +2.7 at 0700H Sat.

-------------------------------------------
FROM: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigmz.php?mz=gmz335&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement

.STORM SURGE AND TIDES...
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING ON
THURSDAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS.

LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL
RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER

PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.5 FEET

PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET

GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET

SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.5 FEET

JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET

MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET

EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET

FREEPORT 949 PM CDT FRI 4.2 FEET

PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.3 FEET

CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.1 FEET
---------------------------------------------
NWS hasn't issued any max surge prediction for Friday Night/Saturday yet. I'll check for updated info every 12H, and post it here for you.

Keep in mind that Katrina had a 22ft surge at Lake Ponchartrain. The 1900 cat4 that hit Galveston was 15.5ft. Not good news, I'm afraid.

GodSpeed Jim

Gary

[Gary C Newlin]

Jim,

From the same page the surge info came from, just in case you haven't had time to check it...
-----------------------------------------
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.EVACUATION INFORMATION...
FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN
PROGRESS. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NURSING HOMES AND ASSISTED-LIVING FACILITIES WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THIS MORNING. ON GALVESTON
ISLAND... BUSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY THIS MORNING AFTER 10 AM FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF RITA'S TRACK
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 6 PM TODAY.

VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY... HARRIS COUNTY... AND THE CITIES OF
HOUSTON...SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN

DECISIONS CONCERNING EVACUATIONS FOR OTHER COUNTIES AND COMMUNITIES WILL BE MADE TODAY.
-------------------------------------------

The next update is to be at 1100H CDT...

Gary

[Denita TwoDragons]

You got my sympathies, hon. Mom & Dad had to cut my son's Birthday festivities short yesterday to prep for dashing down that'a'way. They're on the road now, probably living on caffeine (and in my Mom's case, nicotine as well...). Dad's having to go back to work early because he's their most competent captain in a storm AND half the crew ditched the fleet when they heard Rita was breathing down their necks, and Mom's sticking close in case something happens to their house in Surfside.

I'll keep y'all in my prayers as always, hon. And if you get the chance, please say a quick prayer for my parents, too...

--TwoDragons

[Kevin Buchanan]

Jim,

Good luck from a fellow Texas blogger. I'm in Fort Worth, so the worst I'll be getting is some semi-heavy rain. Hope things go as smoothly as possible for our TX brothers on the coast.

I'm very proud thus far of the Texas response to the impending assault of Rita. Evacs being called early, Gov. Perry calling back the Guard days ago, the citizens by-and-large doing what needs to be done. I'm proud to be a Texan every day, doubly so during the tough times. This is a state that knows how to handle itself. We got smacked by a hurricane in 1900, and we're not going to let it happen again.

Prayers to all those in Rita's path. I have an uncle in Lake McQueeney, nearer to the path of the storm. Be safe!

[DANEgerus]

Dude! Bail! Before you're bailin'!!!

[ArmedGeek]

Well said. I'm in Webster, TX but I'll be riding the storm out at BIAH (The Big Airport) were I'm employed, but the roomies are headed to Dallas. I'm lucky enough to: 1) rent my house, so if it's gone monday, i'll just go find another ;), 2) I don't own much that I can't toss in the truck. (computers, several of them)

Good Luck to the rest of the GulfCoast-dwellers.

[Notta Libb]

Check out a site dedicated to the absurdity and satire nature of saying "It's All George Bush's Fault!"

http://www.itsallgeorgebushsfault.com

Regards,
Notta Libb